Prediction
From logs:
Facebook (Meta, whatever) announced Threads today to launch on July 6th. Given how much worse it feels like Twitter has become (my experience only), on one hand, I could see people migrating here because no great alternative has really emerged. On the other, Facebook has zero “public” products where the user experience is even palatable for me, personally (I use Whatsapp but it’s basically iMessage). Instagram and Facebook both rapidly became completely intolerable for me due to their content. Maybe that is a matter of curation, but I bet, at least in some part, it’s a result of how Facebook runs their business and why Twitter never made much ad revenue compared to them (and why Reddit struggles to either). If I had to make a bet, I would bet on people migrating to Threads. Personally, I won’t until they have a webapp.
Outcome
Incorrect (so far), but not specific enough to be a good prediction After 6 months, Threads isn’t an obvious Twitter replacement. It seems people have migrated all over to Mastodon, Bluesky, Threads and elsewhere. Also, I didn’t start using Threads.